Latest from Egypt Independent
Egypt Independent
2 hours ago
- Climate
- Egypt Independent
Summer 2025 begins Saturday: High temperatures and humidity expected across Egypt
The General Authority of Meteorology announced that summer 2025 begins on Saturday, and will last for approximately three months. In its official statement, the authority clarified that the summer season is characterized by stable weather conditions, rising temperatures, and increased humidity levels. Most days of summer will be influenced by the extension of the Indian Monsoon Depression. This low-pressure system carries extremely hot air masses originating from the Arabian Peninsula's desert. As these masses pass over the Mediterranean Sea, they lose some of their heat but pick up water vapor, leading to both higher temperatures and elevated humidity, which makes the air feel even hotter. Summer low-pressure systems The Meteorological Authority noted that while the Indian Monsoon Depression will affect most summer days, there will be periods influenced by the extension of the Mid-Latitude Depression and the Azores High. These systems bring air masses from Southern Europe, passing over the Mediterranean Sea, resulting in temperatures lower than those associated with the Indian Monsoon Depression. Regarding temperature forecasts for summer 2025, the General Authority of Meteorology explained that temperatures will be above normal averages, interspersed with intense heatwaves and high humidity levels. The authority added, 'In past years, we have become accustomed to rainfall during summer in the southern governorates due to the tropical belt.' Friday's weather Friday will see extremely hot weather during the daytime across Greater Cairo, the Nile Delta, South Sinai, and southern parts of the country. Conditions will be mildly cool along the northern coasts. Nights will be moderately warm across most areas.
Egypt Independent
2 hours ago
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
Why Trump's two-week pause on Iran makes sense — and why it may not work
How Trump could use the next two weeks Trump is wrestling with the gravest national security dilemma of either of his presidencies. He has promised that Iran, which has threatened to wipe Israel off the map and regards the US as a Great Satan, will never be allowed to have a nuclear bomb. So, two-week pause or not, he may end up with no option but to use military force. This is like no other decision Trump has faced as president. It's one thing to set off a trade war on a Tuesday and defuse it on a Wednesday. But if Trump sends US B-2 bombers with their bunker-busting bombs on a mission to destroy Fordow, there's no going back. His delay gives him time. The question is whether he will use it. To begin with, the president has restored his own ability to take control of the timeline for US action. It often looked this week like he was being pushed into joining the conflict by the pace of Israel's assault on Iran. The strategic reality here is that Israel started a conflict — after an evaluation of its own critical interests — that it could not fully end on its own. Only the United States has the capacity to send bombs deep into the mountain protecting the Fordow enrichment plant. The president justified his pause by the need to give diplomacy one last try. 'Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,' he said in a statement read out to reporters by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. Trump's statesmanship on failed Iran nuclear talks has not been adept, so breakthroughs seem unlikely. But possible new talks between his envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian officials could test whether six days of relentless Israeli bombardments have shifted calculations among Iran's leaders. Would the leadership, for example, now consider a previously unpalatable decision to verifiably cede their nuclear program and right to enrich uranium in exchange for a chance at survival for the revolutionary regime? President John F. Kennedy meets with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Shoup, left, and Chief of U.S. Naval Operations Adm. George Anderson on October 29, 1962, to review the operation of the US naval blockade in Cuba. William J. Smith/AP What JFK can teach Trump in this situation Trump probably needs to change his uncompromising approach to talks. He might follow the example of an illustrious predecessor. In a speech at American University only five months before his assassination, President John F. Kennedy reflected on the lessons he drew from the Cuban Missile crisis in 1962. 'Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war,' Kennedy said. Trump's situation with Iran is not completely analogous, because Tehran is not believed to yet possess a nuclear weapon. But the principle is the same: For diplomacy to work, Trump will need to offer Iran a face-saving way out of the confrontation that could preserve a nominal sense of honor. So far, he's done the opposite, demanding 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER' on social media. For a regime founded on opposing what it sees as decades of US imperialism and domination, this is an impossible condition. Iranians shout anti-US and anti-Israeli slogans as they gather in Tehran, Iran, on June 14, 2025, during a religious rally to condemn Israeli attacks. Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/Getty Images Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued that conditions that historically precipitated Iranian concessions could be slotting into place. He identified three such factors — Iran perceives it faces existential economic pressure; a credible military threat; and diplomatic isolation. But Sadjadpour said a fourth trigger for progress was needed — 'a face-saving diplomatic exit.' 'The offer that was given to them was 'unconditional surrender.' That's what President Trump demanded of them. And most dictators are not prepared to take the offer of unconditional surrender,' Sadjadpour said. He added, 'I think we need to think seriously about packaging this a little bit differently so there's a ladder for them to climb down from.' Iran's next moves could also be influenced by its perceptions of Trump's true intent. The president's frequent and multiple climb-downs — for instance on his trade war and over his reluctance to impose any pressure on Russia over Ukraine — raise doubts about his credibility. Trump's malleability might have been one factor that prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to use what Israel believes is a strategic window to take on Iran, even though he knew he could be dragging the US into a new war. If Iran's leaders conclude that Trump is a paper tiger, they may be tempted to call his bluff. They might make a dangerous mistake. But US history is also littered with disastrous examples of presidents pushed into using military force to protect their personal credibility. A photographer works in the heavily damaged building of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting in Tehran, on Thursday, June 19, 2025, days after it was hit by an Israeli strike. AFP/Getty Images What will Israel do next? Trump's pause left Israel with its own questions. The Netanyahu government, with the help of former senior Israeli officials appearing on US TV networks, has left little doubt that it wants the United States to enter the fight. One possible scenario is that Netanyahu uses the next two weeks to examine options that Israel may have to disable Fordow and other facilities on its own. One of the few possibilities is a daring commando raid. This would be a huge risk with an uncertain chance of success. And it is unclear whether Israel on its own has the lift and the search-and-rescue capability that might allow it to carry off such an operation. 'The challenge for the Israelis is, if the United States gives negotiations a chance, will the Israelis wait?' Seth Jones, a former adviser to the commanding general of US special forces in Afghanistan, told CNN's Erin Burnett on Thursday. 'It is not out of the question … that they decide they have to conduct that operation in Fordow and not wait.' This may hint at another reason for Trump's pause. Maybe he's hoping that events over the next two weeks spare him the need to take a fateful decision. A two-week pause may also give the president time for two other priorities — to sell what may be an unpopular choice to stage military action at home — and to fully position US troops for an attack and any Iranian reprisals. The prospect of US strikes set off uproar inside the president's political base since his promise to steer clear of any more Middle East wars has always been central to his appeal. One of the most vocal opponents of new, extended US engagements is Steve Bannon, Trump's former political guru, who now has a popular YouTube show. Bannon had lunch with the president at the White House on Thursday. Another pro-Trump conservative, Tucker Carlson, has attacked right-wing media figures who are agitating for war in Iran. But the prospect of a MAGA revolt may be overstated. Bannon has indicated that if it came to it in the end, he'd get in line behind Trump. Trump also has a deep bond with his voters. He created his coalition; it did not create him, and he may have substantial leeway to lead his followers in a new direction. 'Trust in President Trump. President Trump has incredible instincts, and President Trump kept America and the world safe in his first term,' Leavitt said, in a direct message to the president's supporters on Thursday. This, however, won't move millions of Americans who oppose Trump. After five months in office that have ripped deep national divides — seemingly on purpose — he'll have a much harder job wining the support of the country as a whole.
Egypt Independent
2 hours ago
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
Iran's ultimate threat: The catastrophic scenarios of a Strait of Hormuz blockade
With the recent military escalation between Iran and Israel, the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz has re-emerged as a major point of global tension, widely seen as Tehran's most dangerous strategic leverage. This comes after statements from a former commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, a military visit to the Strait before his death, and direct warnings from Iranian parliament members that 'closing the Strait' is an option on the table, despite potential harm to Iran itself. So, does Tehran truly have the capability to close it? And what if it did? Why is the Strait of Hormuz So Crucial? The Strait of Hormuz stands as a critical global shipping bottleneck. Approximately 20 percent of the world's oil supply passes through it, amounting to about 20 million barrels per day, or an estimated $600 billion in annual trade. The Strait forms a crucial link between the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the broader Arabian its waters flow oil exports from key regional producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran. Can Iran Block the Strait of Hormuz? According to reports from the Pentagon and various American research centers, Iran possesses several methods to disrupt or even close the Strait of Hormuz. These include: Laying naval mines: These can be deployed rapidly by speedboats and small submarines. Disrupting commercial shipping: Employing swift patrol boats to issue warning shots at vessels in transit. Employing swift patrol boats to issue warning shots at vessels in transit. Directly targeting oil tankers: A tactic previously employed during the 1980s. A tactic previously employed during the 1980s. Declaring a unilateral shipping ban: This could induce widespread panic and severely impact maritime insurance rates. Despite these capabilities, a complete closure of the Strait would likely necessitate an open naval confrontation with the United States, which maintains the strongest military presence in the Gulf region. Who Would Be Most Affected? Among the countries that rely most significantly on the Strait of Hormuz for maritime trade are: Saudi Arabia: Exports over 6 million barrels of oil daily through the passage. Exports over 6 million barrels of oil daily through the passage. UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait: These nations are almost entirely dependent on the Strait for their oil exports. These nations are almost entirely dependent on the Strait for their oil exports. China, India, South Korea, and Japan: These are the largest importers of oil from the Gulf region. These are the largest importers of oil from the Gulf region. United States: Imports approximately 700,000 barrels of oil per day via the Strait. Nations Less Affected by a Hormuz Closure Certain countries would experience relatively less disruption if the Strait of Hormuz were closed: Europe: This continent relies less heavily on oil transiting through the Strait. This continent relies less heavily on oil transiting through the Strait. Iran itself: A significant portion of Iran's oil sales to China passes through the Strait, making any complete closure a 'self-inflicted wound' for Tehran. Exploring Alternatives Over recent years, Gulf nations have worked to develop alternative routes to lessen their dependence on the Strait: Saudi Arabia: Utilizes the 'East-West' pipeline, capable of transporting 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea. Utilizes the 'East-West' pipeline, capable of transporting 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea. UAE: Operates a pipeline extending to Fujairah Port on the Gulf of Oman. Operates a pipeline extending to Fujairah Port on the Gulf of Oman. Iran: Launched the 'Goureh-Jask' pipeline to the Gulf of Oman, though it operates at minimal capacity, handling only 350,000 barrels. Despite these alternative pathways, they remain insufficient to cover the entirety of global oil supplies that currently pass through the Strait. Will Iran Dare to Pull the Trigger? Analysts have characterized Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz as a 'last resort' or a 'final bullet,' given the potentially catastrophic economic and political consequences: Allies would suffer more than adversaries: China, being the largest importer of Iranian oil, would be particularly impacted. China, being the largest importer of Iranian oil, would be particularly impacted. Tehran would face accusations of 'energy blackmail': This could swiftly trigger comprehensive international sanctions or even military intervention. This could swiftly trigger comprehensive international sanctions or even military intervention. The action would lead to an insane surge in global oil prices, potentially causing a worldwide economic recession. Strait of Hormuz: Scenarios and Expected Outcomes Temporary Partial Closure: Price surges, heightened political tension, and room for diplomatic maneuvering. Full Closure with Military Confrontation: Direct U.S. intervention, bombardment of Iranian naval sites, and potential expansion of the conflict. Threat Announcement Without Execution: Psychological pressure on markets and importing nations, with no real cost incurred by Tehran. Could the 1980s Scenario Repeat? During the 'Tanker War' between Iran and Iraq (1980–1988), navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was never fully halted. However, mines and attacks drastically inflated shipping costs. Several vessels were hit during that period, compelling the U.S. Navy to secure maritime passage under its flag. Tragically, an Iranian passenger plane was mistakenly shot down by an American missile.
Egypt Independent
2 hours ago
- Health
- Egypt Independent
Iran accuses Israel of third hospital attack in Tehran
Iran's Ministry of Health has announced that the Israeli 'occupation' targeted a hospital in the capital, Tehran, marking the third such incident, according to international media reports. The Ministry stated that the 'Zionist entity' has struck six ambulances and a health services center since its 'aggression' against the country began. Last Friday, the Israeli 'occupation' launched attacks against various areas in Iran. These strikes were not limited to military zones; rather, the majority targeted residential areas, resulting in approximately 600 fatalities, mostly civilians, to date, according to international media. Separately, Iranian media reported that an Israeli drone targeted a residential building in central Tehran.
Egypt Independent
9 hours ago
- Business
- Egypt Independent
Egypt ranks 9th globally, 1st in Africa for FDI in 2024
Rania al-Mashat, Egypt's Minister of Planning and Economic Development and International Cooperation, announced the launch of the World Investment Report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The report monitors key trends in global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024 and highlights Egypt's position among the most attractive countries for investments, driven by the Egyptian government's reforms. In a statement to the Egyptian Cabinet, the Minister revealed that the report placed Egypt ninth globally and first in Africa among the most attractive countries for FDI during 2024, attracting $47 billion in investments. The Minister clarified that this marks a significant leap for Egypt from its 32nd global ranking in 2023, which recorded $10 billion in FDI. This reflects the government's prioritization of empowering the private sector and attracting investments. She also noted the positive growth rate in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, which exceeded expectations. Al-Mashat highlighted the report's positive focus on developments in Africa, particularly in Egypt. The report specifically spotlighted the Ras El Hekma deal as an innovative model comprising two components: direct investment and a debt-swap mechanism. She added that this model came at a crucial time and demonstrates the state's ability to utilize innovative tools to attract financing and investments, deploying them in line with its national priorities. She also referred to the UNCTAD Secretary-General's address, which emphasized the importance of mobilizing financing for the private sector. In this context, Egypt hosted a major conference earlier this week on development finance and enhancing the private sector's role in achieving growth and creating job opportunities. This conference also served as a genuine platform to embody the principle of cooperation between international financial institutions and national governments in supporting the investment and development agenda. Within this framework, she affirmed that over the past five years, Egypt has successfully mobilized more than $15.6 billion for the private sector. She underscored that the relationship between trade, investment, and development is an integrated and interconnected one, and that promoting private and foreign investments is considered one of the primary means to achieve comprehensive and sustainable growth.
